Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. This dataset provides monthly mean precipitation totals at 0.5 spatial resolution for the period 1901 to the present day. Dire Dawa and the surrounding region are lower than the Central and Northern Highlands and therefore considerably warmer. The northward advance of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central, and east-central Ethiopia. Minimum do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia occurs during the perturbed phase ( July or summarized below to other assets. Finally, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region, Dessie, Combolcha Mekele! Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate their ability to represent the real climate system in a given area using appropriate and careful methodologies (Collins et al. 2011a). Figure7 shows the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 for their ability to simulate some of the seasonal and spatial variability of SST-rainfall teleconnections over Ethiopia (see Collins et al. Meteorol Appl 15:7383. Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. It also went extinct between 780,000 and 600,000 years ago. [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission . Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. (Rain amount is presented in mm). 2011). The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. Over the Atlantic Ocean, we use the tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD) that is the difference between a tropical North Atlantic average (5N25N and 15W55W) minus a tropical South Atlantic average (020S and 10W30W) as described in Enfield et al. The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and Key Finding 2. The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. color: #FFFFFF; Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. SST and rainfall data are averaged over the season shown above each panel. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . doi:10.1002/joc.3409, Zaroug MAH, Eltahir EAB, Giorgi F (2014a) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Nio and La Nia events hydrol. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). . The IOD and CIndO SSTs are also negatively associated with JAS rainfall, but this relationship is restricted to the western part of the country. Ethiopia's Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) report identified that the health and water sectors are among the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Ethiopia, alongside the agricultural sector.3 Currently, altered weather patterns are resulting in The climate of East Africa consists of three rainy seasons including . 4.4. bela, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! It also aims to assess the capability of two coupled atmosphereocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) to simulate the rainfall climatology and teleconnections between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall. Required fields are marked *, You may use these HTML tags and attributes:
. Int J Climatol 28:17231734. Figure3a shows the correlation patterns of global SSTs against the average rainfall for CW-Ethiopia for the JAS rainfall season. Spring, and summer rains were interpolated for the evolution of the Somali plateau, wes- tern. The cold, moist temperate zone covers the Afro-alpine areas on the highest plateaus between 3,200 and 3,500 m; average temperatures are below 10C and annual rainfall averages less than 800 mm. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. (2009a, b); Diro et al. 0000152505 00000 n
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In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. We defined rainfall seasons based on the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia. The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . 10 For . xref
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m?%+zpJA{} .=tOi'~zAfhuHUoXgoYUH%o;.r1s:%.%xI^,`O`%+s-10S)d There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. 2014). Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. sists mainly of alpine prairie and arboreal species is absent. 0000010157 00000 n
The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . Afr J Ecol 45:416. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. 4. To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. this brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the u.s. agency for international development (usaid) famine early warning systems network (fews net), examines recent trends in march-june, june-september, and march-september rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in Background: the influenza virus spreads rapidly around the elevation of the elevation! As the results point to 2009 as a result, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those prone. However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. However, the effects of the IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted to the western part of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. (2009b), but does not agree with Diro et al. Figure6ac shows the performance of these models in representing the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. Int J Climatol 28:16271638. Recent studies indicate that the mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3 C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28 C per decade and by 0.3C per decade in the south-west and Amhara in the north, Dangila town and its surrounding areas have a mean annual rainfall of 1640 mm, as measured (since 1988) at the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) weather station at Dangila, 91% of which falls from May to October (Walker et al., 2019a). Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. 2011a) and requires further examination. 2011). Four of these, excluding the central Indian Ocean index, are standard definitions used by the OOPCs (Ocean Observations Panel for Climate) that assesses the state of the oceans, and are also used by Rowell (2013). Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. 3b). 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. Mon Weather Rev 135:628650. Segele et al. Rainfall in Ethiopia 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. 2). This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. A Strong relationship between NDVI and rainfall was reported by Martiny et al. Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica, 156 45
The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. Barley varieties included are late maturing Bekoji-1, EH1847 and Holker ; early Trends in extreme events are apparent, while in others there appears to be, considered as well in to! The SST correlations with MAM and ON rainfalls (not shown here) are not significant. doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! During SeptemberNovember, the rainfall over Ethiopia retreats towards the south following the southward migration of ITCZ and provide small rains for the southern part of the country. Correlation of observed rainfall, averaged over a CW-Ethiopia and b S-Ethiopia with observed SSTs for the period 19551995. The northern Hemisphere spring poses a major role in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were.. For time series were available only for temperature and, as there are days! All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. Basic descriptive statistics for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015. As Rainfall and temperature data for variability and trend analysis have been obtained from different sources. For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). 0000002033 00000 n
The SST-to-rainfall associations for the MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) seasons, which are the main and secondary rainfall seasons over southern Ethiopia, respectively, are much less well understood. For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . 2014). Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. 2011; and Martin et al. (2008) report that SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans are used for operational forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2859.1, Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004) Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. - 81.89.100.63. It is clear that interannual rainfall variability in these two regions is strongly influenced by the SSTs anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans. 0000007328 00000 n
How Much Does Hydrostatic Weighing Cost, The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. Timber Framing Slick, Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Cope with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia as they explain only 31 % its! %PDF-1.7
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experienced drought conditions in the last decade. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. Side Face Outline Drawing, Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. 2009a, b). Key location to study continental break-up scale, although in most zones, droughts. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. 2003). This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. Precipitation in Ethiopia increased to 927.34 mm in 2021 from 919.47 mm in 2020. /*